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New report: Shipping is a key strategic industry in a more competitive world. New risks and opportunities abound for Danish shipowners

Shipping is an important strategic industry. New report identifies macro trends that will impact shipping in the coming years. Structural changes provide opportunities as well as risks for Danish shipping companies and policy makers. 

Shipping has always been a critical strategic industry. Shipping is the backbone of crucial supply chains that carry more than 80 % of the world’s goods and underpin the global energy system. 

This is truer than ever in a world that is becoming more unpredictable and where geopolitical tension is rising. 

Danish Shipping has commissioned global advisory firm Macro Advisory Partners to produce a report that analyses the risks and opportunities facing the Danish shipping industry in a changing world. 

The report highlights a series of key market risks arising from structural changes. They include more frequent geopolitical shocks, critical dependence on China in several areas, fragmented capital markets and data vul­ne­ra­bi­li­ties. 

For decades, China has viewed shipping as a key strategic sector and have in a short time made remarkable progress and become a key player in the global shipping industry. The newly elected Trump-administration also seems to have recognized the strategic importance of the shipping sector and are taking steps to boost American shipbuilding capacity and the number of ships under the American flag. 

“The great powers increasingly view shipping as a crucial strategic sector and are taking steps to bolster their position. As a small country with a large merchant fleet, Denmark – and our European allies – must prioritize framework conditions that allow our shipping industries to compete on the global market. We need to avoid critical dependence on others, especially when it comes to the production of the alternative, greener fuels that will power the green transition of the shipping sector in the years to come,” said Anne H. Steffensen, CEO of Danish Shipping. 

This report shows that the importance of a thriving Danish shipping sector to national and economic security is becoming increasingly significant in a more volatile world
Anne H. Steffensen, CEO of Danish Shipping

Shipping is particularly important to Denmark as a small, open economy that has become prosperous by trading with the rest of the world. Shipping is Denmark’s largest export industry. 

“This report shows that the importance of a thriving Danish shipping sector to national and economic security is becoming increasingly significant in a more volatile world. It is an expression of timely diligence that the government has established a growth team for Blue Denmark, which is currently working on recom­men­da­tions for the future framework conditions of our industry. We need to make sure that Danish shipping can remain competitive on a global scale and continue to thrive and make a substantial contribution to our national wealth and security for many years to come,” said Anne H. Steffensen. 

The report also mentions opportunities “for Denmark to enhance its existing maritime competitive advantages and improve their com­pe­ti­ti­ve­ness going forward”. These include working within the EU to expand trade ties and upscaling European green fuels production. 

“We must seize the opportunities that lie ahead of us. Danish shipping companies are among the most ambitious in the world, when it comes to embracing the green transition. We need to make sure that we turn going green into good business. And we need to make sure that Europe and our partners take the necessary steps to massively scale up the production of the green fuels needed to power a green future for the shipping industry. Shipping will help make Denmark richer, greener and safer,” said Anne H. Steffensen. 

Shipping will help make Denmark richer, greener and safer
Anne H. Steffensen, CEO of Danish Shipping

Five Macro Trends:

MAP has identified five macro trends likely to impact the shipping industry’s development over the next decade and beyond. Effective adaptation to these trends will be crucial to continue to facilitate global trade despite rising policy barriers, drive sustainable economic development and protect against rising national and economic security threats. 

·         Global economic rewiring. Shipping will play a pivotal role in facilitating shifting trade flows. Port investments in rising Middle Powers can enable strong trade ties with Denmark. 

 

·         Structural strategic competition. Reinforcing leadership on advanced shipbuilding sectors and increasing connectivity can maintain Danish shipping com­pe­ti­ti­ve­ness. 

 

·         Shocks and weaponized chokepoints. A flexible shipping industry will enable Danish trade to adapt to increasing disruptions in key waterways and avoid an outcome where European trade costs more to transport than competitors’ trade.

 

·         Energy transition. European leadership in innovation and development of the e-fuels supply chain can securitise future energy supply in a more competitive energy transition. The shipping industry is key for transporting critical minerals for renewable electricity generation. 

 

·         Technological developments. First movers on new technologies will secure competitive advantages, increasing Denmark’s centrality to global trade. Eventually, investments by Danish firms can help Denmark to lead in emerging technologies like autonomous shipping.